Reference Evapotranspiration in Climate Change Scenarios in Mato Grosso, Brazil

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202405.0931.v1
• Publication Date: 2024-05-17T08:53:24Z
• Authors: Marlus Sabino; Andréa Carvalho d...; Frederico Terra d...; Adilson Pacheco d...
• Keywords: Mann–Kendall trend analysis; spatiotemporal variability; global climate models; Science; Q; 0207 environmental engineering; RCP scenarios; 02 engineering and technology; Penman–Monteith; southern Amazon

The understanding of spatiotemporal variations in reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its long-term trends is paramount importance for water cycle studies, modeling, resource management, especially the context climate change. Therefore, primary aim this study to critically evaluate performance various CMIP5 global models simulating Penman-Monteith associated variables (maximum minimum air temperature, incident solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed). This evaluation based on data from nine 33 automatic meteorological stations (EMA) state Mato Grosso, spanning period 2007-2020. statistical metrics used include Bias, root mean square error, Pearson Spearman correlation coefficients. projections most accurate model were then analyze spatial temporal changes ETo under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 scenarios 2007 2100. HadGEM2-ES indicate static averages similar current conditions until end century 2.6 scenario. However, 4.5 scenarios, there a continuous increase ETo, with significant occurring during dry (May September). areas Amazon biome north Grosso exhibit largest increases when comparing observed (2007-2020) projected (2020-2100) averages. trend analysis reveals across scenarios. In scenario, are only northern areas. Despite not being all AWSs, demonstrates more intense existence paradox an Cerrado reductions Pantanal southern