Development and validation of a prediction model for six-month societal costs in older community care-recipients in multiple countries; the IBenC study

• DOI: 10.21203/rs.2.16402/v1
• Publication Date: 2019-10-24T21:50:45Z
• Authors: Lisanne van Lier; Judith E Bosmans; Henriette G van d...; Martyn W Heymans; Vjenka Garms-Homo...; Anja Declercq; Pálmi V Jónsson; Hein P.J. van Hout

Abstract Objectives To develop and validate a prediction model of societal costs during period six-month in older community care-recipients across multiple European countries. Methods Data from the IBenC study were used. Participants five The outcome measure was mean six-months total resource utilisation (healthcare informal care). Potential predictors assessed at baseline included sociodemographic characteristics, functional limitations, clinical conditions, diseases/disorders. developed by performing Linear Mixed Models with random intercept for effect country validated an internal-external validation procedure. Calibration curves expected-to-observed (E/O) ratios calculated. Results Living alone, caregiver distress, ADL iADL impairment, required level care support, health instability, presence pain, behavioural problems, urinary incontinence, multimorbidity significantly predicted six months. explained 32% variation within showed good calibration Iceland, Finland Germany. Minor adaptations improved performance Netherland Italy. Conclusion results can provide valuable orientation policymakers to better understand cost development among care-recipients. Of that identified, IADL incontinence may be modifiable some extent could targeted interventions aim reduce costs. other, non-modifiable predictors, including living used policy makers optimal allocation.