The July 2018 High Temperature Event in Japan Could Not Have Happened without Human-Induced Global Warming

• DOI: 10.2151/sola.15a-002
• Publication Date: 2019-05-21T22:05:26Z
• Authors: Yukiko Imada; Masahiro Watanabe; Hiroaki Kawase; Hideo Shiogama; Miki Arai
• Keywords: 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this under condition external forcings was approximately 20%. This probability result high-pressure systems both upper and lower troposphere 2018. attribution approach based on large-ensemble without human-induced climate change indicated following: (1) would never have happened anthropogenic global warming. (2) strength two-tiered also at an extreme level least doubled probability, which independent Moreover, set dynamically downscaled outputs revealed mean annual extremely hot days Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times warming 2°C above pre-industrial levels.