Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific

• DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2013.155
• Publication Date: 2013-06-25T11:38:05Z
• Authors: Gwo-Fong Lin; Po-Kai Huang; Hsuan-Yu Lin
• Keywords: Typhoon; Intensity; Tropical cyclone scales; Robustness

For typhoon warning centers, effective forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity is always required. The major difficulties and challenges in are the complex physical mechanism structure cyclones. interaction between its environment also a process. In this paper, model based on support vector machines developed to yield 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 h forecasts intensity. Furthermore, resulting from proposed compared with those Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Cross-validation tests applied evaluate accuracy robustness model. results confirm that can provide accurate intensity, especially for long lead-time. When sample events classified into five categories according Saffir-Simpson scale, have best performance 4 5. addition, when turns northward, although water temperature drops rapidly, still performs well. conclusion, useful improve cyclones