Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease in Type 2 Diabetes

• DOI: 10.2337/dc08-0662
• Publication Date: 2008-07-01T00:53:47Z
• Authors: Jan Cederholm; Katarina Eeg-Olof...; Björn Eliasson; Björn Zethelius; Peter M. Nilsson; Soffia Gudbjörns...
• Keywords: Adult; Male; Sweden; Cardiovascular and Metabolic Risk; Time Factors; Adolescent; Middle Aged; Risk Assessment; Survival Analysis; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Predictive Value of Tests; Humans; Female; Registries; Diabetic Angiopathies; Aged; Follow-Up Studies; Probability

OBJECTIVE—Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of absolute first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients with use A1C and clinical characteristics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The was based on 11,646 female male patients, aged 18–70 years, Swedish National Diabetes Register 1,482 CVD events 58,342 person-years mean follow-up 5.64 years. RESULTS—This incorporates A1C, UK Prospective Study engine, several characteristics: onset age diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included associated outcome (P < 0.0001, except BMI P = 0.0016) Cox regression analysis. Calibration excellent when assessed by comparing observed predicted risk. Discrimination sufficient, receiver operator curve statistic 0.70. Mean all 12.0 ± 7.5%, whereas 54% had ≥10%. CONCLUSIONS—This simplified enables easily available nonlaboratory practice elaborated large observational normal patient up to 70