Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease

• DOI: 10.2460/ajvr.2003.64.205
• Publication Date: 2006-01-23T18:32:36Z
• Authors: Thomas W. Bates; Mark C. Thurmond; Tim E. Carpenter
• Keywords: Herd Immunity; Disease Control; Culling

Abstract Objective —To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-andmouth disease (FMD) in a region California. Sample Population —2,238 herds 5 sale yards Fresno, Kings, Tulare counties Procedure —A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics FMD specified scenarios that included baseline strategy mandated by USDA supplemental strategies slaughter or vaccination all animals within distance infected herds, only high-risk identified use simulation, expansion surveillance zones. Results —Median number affected varied from 1 385 (17% herds), depending on type index herd delay diagnosis FMD. Percentage decreased the expanding designated area 10 20 km (48%), vaccinating 50-km radius an (41%), slaughtering highest-risk each (39%), (24%). Conclusions Clinical Relevance —Results provided means assessing relative merits potential should it enter US livestock population. For study region, preemptive consistently size duration epidemic, compared with strategy. ( Am J Vet Res 2003;64:205–210)