Prediction of Fruit Production in India: An Econometric Approach

• DOI: 10.2478/johr-2023-0005
• Publication Date: 2023-07-16T06:41:07Z
• Authors: Soumik Ray; Pradeep Mishra; Hicham Ayad; Prity Kumari; Rajnee Sharma; Binita Kumari; Abdullah Mohammad...; Anant Tamang; Tufleuddin Biswas
• Keywords: Exponential Smoothing; Bootstrapping (finance); Econometric model; Goodness of fit

Abstract Forecasting is valuable to countries because it enables them make informed business decisions and develop data-driven strategies. Fruit production offers promising economic opportunities reduce rural poverty unemployment in developing a crucial component of farm diversification After vegetables, fruits are the most affordable source essential vitamins minerals for human health. India's fruit strategies should be developed based on accurate predictions best forecasting models. This study focused behavior apples, bananas, grapes, mangoes, guavas, pineapples India using data from 1961 2015 (modelling set) 2016–2020 (predicting set). Two unit root tests were used, Ng–Perron (2001) test, Dickey–Fuller test with bootstrapping critical values depending Park (2003) technique. The results show that all variables stationary at first differences. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) exponential smoothing (ETS) models used compared goodness fit. indicated ETS model was cases, as had smallest errors deviations between actual values. result confirmed three tests: Diebold–Mariano, Giacomini–White, Clark–West. According models, forecasts during 2021–2027 obtained. In terms production, an increase expected mangosteens, this period. current outcomes could enable policymakers create enabling environment farmers, exporters, other stakeholders, leading stable markets enhanced growth. Policymakers can use insights design ensure diverse nutritious supply population. include initiatives like promoting small-scale farming, improving postharvest storage processing facilities, establishing effective distribution networks reach vulnerable communities.