Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Combined Climate Change and Air Pollution Policy Scenarios

• DOI: 10.2788/33719
• Publication Date: 2010-10-01
• Authors: Van Aardenne John; Dentener Franciscus; Van Dingenen Rita; Janssens-Maenhout...; Elina Marmer; E. Vignati; Russ Hans Peter; László Szabó; Frank Raes

This report describes an assessment of the co-benefits for air pollution recently developed climate mitigation scenarios that inform European Union policy making. The were obtained with POLES equilibrium model a business-as-usual and greenhouse gas reduction case. In present work, these expanded to emissions. resulting set global -spatially sector disaggregated- emissions evaluated chemistry transport TM5, calculate levels particulate matter ozone. Subsequently, impacts on human health, ecosystems evaluated. four thus reflect various combinations worldwide policies: BAU (no further policies since 2000 base-year); CARB (climate only), BAP policy, but progressive policies, address increasing pollution) CAP (combination ambitious policies). implementation (CARB) has substantial reducing pollutant Compared BAU, in 2050 SO2 are reduced by ca. 75 %, NOx 55 CO (40 %) other pollutants VOC, OC BC) about 25% %. These emission reductions result from cleaner technologies decreased fuel demand, correspond CO2 more than 60 Advanced abatement can obtain similar ranging between 35 % (NOx), 45 (OC, BC), (SO2) 70% (CO), however this case reach unabated Pg CO2/yr. combined (CAP) reduces 10-30 Noticeable decreases methane which have important ozone quality climate. environmental benefits substantial. 2050, average life expectancy increases 3.2 months/person (compared BAU) 3.7 6.9 if additionally introduced (CAP). 2000, only scenario leads improvement life-expectancy (by 3 months/person), while all lead higher concentration lower expectancies, mainly driven developments South East Asia. improvements due decreasing concentrations primary secondary (SO4, NO3) aerosol. work shows combining is some regions way stabilize or decrease health. expectancy, however, masks large regional differences: e.g. current future Asia much larger Europe United States. Crop losses 4.7 implementing could be another 2 introducing additional policies. Climate target at limiting long-term (2100) change. On intermediate time-scales (2030-2050), there might trade-offs considered precursor (especially sulfur) emissions, likely net positive radiative forcing warming Since necessary protect health vegetation, beneficial both stand-alone There scope preferentially mitigate Black Carbon methane,