The politics of search-and-rescue and the migration flow through the Central Mediterranean Route

• DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/npgku
• Publication Date: 2022-05-18T20:13:48Z
• Authors: Alejandra Rodrígu...; Ramona Rischke; Julian Wucherpfennig; Stefano Iacus
• Keywords: Search and rescue; Inflow; Guard (computer science)

According to certain political discourses, state-led and private-led search-and-rescue is an explanatory factor of the observed increase during period 2013-2016 in inflow migrants along Central Mediterranean route towards Europe, which would imply constitutes a 'pull factor' migration. However, throughout these years, various changes laws, policies practices operations took place resulting three distinct periods: The MARE NOSTRUM period, search-and-rescue, coordinated pushbacks made by possible EU-cooperation with Libyan Coast Guard. These different periods allow us test whether claim has any empirical support available data on migration movements this route. Based aggregate counts arrivals, deaths, we employ Bayesian structural time series model estimate effects intervention flow as measured attempted crossings, net drivers irregular from Africa Europe. We collect multiple sources traditional non-traditional economic series, other 'push factors' build synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. show that our predictive can capture behavior target pre-intervention periods. Our findings suggest there no substantial difference between through scenario periods, implies state- did not Pushback policies, however, reduce drastically.