Simulation of deep ventilation in Crater Lake, Oregon, 1951–2099

• DOI: 10.3133/sir20165046
• Publication Date: 2016-05-04T14:42:58Z
• Authors: Tamara M. Wood; Susan A. Wherry; Sebastiano Piccol...; Scott F Girdner
• Keywords: Crater lake; Caldera; Stratification (seeds)

First posted May 4, 2016 For additional information, contact: Director, Oregon Water Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, 97201http://or.water.usgs.gov The frequency of deep ventilation events in Crater Lake, a caldera lake the Cascade Mountains, was simulated six future climate scenarios, using 1-dimensional model (1DDV) that developed to simulate water initiated by reverse stratification and subsequent thermobaric instability. calibrated validated with temperature data collected from 1994 2011. Wind air three general circulation models two representative concentration pathways were used change possible climates. lumped air2water project surface temperature, required boundary condition for model, based on climates.The 1DDV daily profiles through 2099. All scenarios projected increased throughout column substantive reduction events. least extreme scenario decrease about 1 2 years current conditions 3 2100. most considered be 7.7 predicted entire will greater than 4 °C increasing lengths time instability induced mixing become rare or non-existent.The disruption itself does not provide complete picture potential ecological quality consequences warming Lake. Estimating effect oxygen depletion clarity require careful modeling studies combine physical processes affected atmosphere multitude factors affecting growth algae corresponding clarity.