Evaluating the impact of macroeconomic instability on export turnover of ASEAN countries

• DOI: 10.31893/multiscience.2025318
• Publication Date: 2024-12-30T01:49:41Z
• Authors: Dang Trung Tuyen; Nguyen Thi Thu Hoai; Nguyen Thi Hong; Nguyen Minh Chau; Nguyen Ngoc Trung; Rizwan Akhtar

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic instability on export volumes ASEAN countries over period 30 years from 1993 to 2022. Using secondary data sourced World Bank, analysis focuses seven including Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, ensuring reliability. The key indicators selected measure in this research are GDP, inflation rate, unemployment external debt. Applying ARDL model alongside descriptive statistics, Unit Root tests, Johansen cointegration Pairwise Granger causality findings reveal that has an both short term long term. Among indicators, GDP exhibits most profound relationship with time frames; while debt a negative influence, shows positive These insights provide valuable foundation for economists policymakers have timely accurate policy decisions aimed at mitigating market fostering sustainable growth region. For countries, particularly those significant such as proposes several recommendations, including: (1) is crucial short-term long-term economic stability; (2) should be leveraged only but requires careful consideration long-term; (3) maintaining reasonable levels essential balanced development.