The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.719024
• Publication Date: 2021-09-03T23:41:07Z
• Authors: Marika M. Holland; Laura Landrum
• Keywords: Arctic geoengineering; Albedo (alchemy); Ice-albedo feedback

Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to globe. This amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, also home large internal variability, which can make detection forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model ensembles, have different rates and sea ice loss, assess time emergence anthropogenically-forced amplification. We find that this occurs at turn century in all models, ranging across models by decade 1994–2005. transient changes signal 21st beyond. Over century, projections indicate maximum will transition fall winter due reductions extend further into fall. Additionally, magnitude annual declines over associated part with weakening albedo feedback strength. In simulation extends 23rd as cover completely lost, there little reduction surface saturates level reduced its value.