Projected effects of climate change and urban expansion on species-level biodiversity of plants in main city clusters of Northern China

• DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.1153448
• Publication Date: 2023-07-28T03:25:37Z
• Authors: Tianxiao Ma; Yu Liang; Zhouyuan Li; Bo Liu; Mia M. Wu; Matthew K. Lau; Yue Feng
• Keywords: Biodiversity hotspot

Introduction Northern China is considered a global hotspot of biodiversity loss due to dramatic climate and land use change characterized by rapid urban expansion. However, little known that the impacts these two drivers in shaping future availability habitat for plants areas China, especially at high spatial resolution. Methods Here, we modelled suitability 2,587 plant species from flora estimated how expansion may affect species-level across three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios year 2050 main city clusters. Results The results suggested combined could cause decline up 6.5% while alone 4.7–6.2% 0.0–0.3% 2050. contribution was higher areas, natural areas. Species lose an average 8.2–10.0% their original environmentally suitable area. Our verified process would necessarily result large-scale loss. Discussion clusters mainly determined rather than climatic change. impact should not be ignored, since will likely reduction area some species. Based on findings, proposed accelerate unless both are minimized.