Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs

• DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1286980
• Publication Date: 2024-01-04T05:06:03Z
• Authors: Nicholas A. Povak; Patricia N. Manley
• Keywords: Resilience; Climate Resilience; Ecological forecasting

As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency develop climate-informed management solutions resilience help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over long term. Towards this goal, we used analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments quantify future resource stability (FRS) mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine projections 1 km cells across California. For each model, assessed at focal cell comparison top 100 locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure support proposition that given would be stable change. Raster six resources exhibited high degree spatial variability FRS was largely driven by biophysical gradients State, cross-correlation among suggested similarities responses Overall, about one-third State low indicating lack potential losses time. Areas most vulnerable change occurred lower elevations and/or warmer winter summer environments, whereas higher elevation, or mid-elevations summers cooler winters. The approach offered replicable methodology assess large regions multiple, diverse resources. can readily integrated into decision systems guide strategic investments.