Seasonal forecasting of mussel aquaculture meat yield in the Pelorus Sound

• DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1195921
• Publication Date: 2023-06-01T11:06:44Z
• Authors: Neelesh Rampal; Niall Broekhuizen; David Plew; John Zeldis; Ben Noll; Tristan Meyers; Amy L. Whitehead; Nicolas Fauchereau; Jeanie Stenton-Dozey
• Keywords: 0106 biological sciences; aquaculture; sea surface temperature; seasonal forecasting; Science; Q; teleconnections; mussel meat yield; General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution; QH1-199.5; 01 natural sciences

This study develops a novel approach to forecasting anomalies of meat yield from mussel aquaculture in Pelorus Sound, New Zealand, based on the relationships between non-local sea surface temperature (SST) and observations over 13 years. Overall, we found strong associations lagged SSTs Tasman Sea region yield, with noticeable seasonal cycle these relationships. Results also showed that oceanic variables such as SST correlate more strongly than atmospheric variables, wind other indices flow. The relationship is linked patterns along west coast Zealand. We identified regions where was most correlated for each season derived empirical linear regression. then applied forecasts European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts generate yield. By validating our years retrospective forecasts, find significant skill at lead times up 3 months December–February 5 September–November. During March-August are only skillful lead-time 1 month. results this have potential improve accuracy reliability provide valuable insights industry.