An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore

• DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.714092
• Publication Date: 2022-05-18T06:15:01Z
• Authors: Sean Shao Wei Lam; Ahmad Reza Pourgh...; Hairil Rizal Abdu...; Francis Ngoc Hoan...; Fahad Javaid Sidd...; John Pastor Ansah; Jenny G. Low; David Bruce Matchar; Marcus Eng Hock Ong
• Keywords: Singapore; 670; agile resource allocation; SARS-CoV-2; agile resource planning; COVID-19 pandemic; COVID-19; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; systems dynamics modeling; Humans; hospital bed management; Public Health; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Delivery of Health Care; Pandemics

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes.ObjectiveWe describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore.Materials and MethodsThe study data were derived from the Singapore General Hospital and public domain sources over the period from 1 January 2020 till 31 May 2020 covering the period when the initial outbreak and surge of COVID-19 cases in Singapore happened. The simulation models and its variants take into consideration the dynamic evolution of the pandemic and the rapidly evolving policies and processes in Singapore.ResultsThe models were calibrated against historical data for the Singapore COVID-19 situation. Several variants of the resource planning model were rapidly developed to adapt to the fast-changing COVID-19 situation in Singapore.ConclusionThe agility in adaptable models and robust collaborative management structure enabled the quick deployment of human and capital resources to sustain the high level of health services delivery during the COVID-19 surge.