Identifying the Areas at Risk of Huaico Occurrences in the Department of Lima, Peru

• DOI: 10.3390/cli13010011
• Publication Date: 2025-01-06T09:37:10Z
• Authors: Geise Macedo dos ...; Vania Elisabete S...; Gisele Cemin; Matheus Poletto
• Keywords: Georeference

Because of local climate, a phenomenon called huaico occurs in the coastal regions Peru, configured by an alluvial flow surface runoff caused precipitation and accompanied transport solid particles. A total 24% huaicos recorded Peru from 2003 to 2019 were concentrated Department Lima alone affected 38,000 people. Thus, aim this study was use Maxent identify areas at risk department. To end, georeferenced database created that included locations these events for modeling. We used variables suggested Peru’s Geological, Mining, Metallurgical Institute (INGEMMET)—geology, geomorphology, DEM, slope, precipitation—which returned extremely high kappa coefficients. Approximately 42% Lima’s area is likely have occurrence. The most crucial variable models geomorphological classification characterized accumulation mobilized material, as case previous models. In addition, monthly approach should been more effective determining differences levels. new departments using algorithms take related precipitation, although proved satisfactory.