Rising Precipitation Extremes across Nepal

• DOI: 10.3390/cli5010004
• Publication Date: 2017-01-13T15:08:37Z
• Authors: Ramchandra Karki; Shabeh ul Hasson; Udo Schickhoff; Thomas Scholten; Jürgen Böhner
• Keywords: Trend analysis

As a mountainous country, Nepal is most susceptible to precipitation extremes and related hazards, including severe floods, landslides droughts that cause huge losses of life property, impact the Himalayan environment, hinder socioeconomic development country. Given countrywide assessment such still lacking, we present comprehensive picture prevailing observed across Nepal. First, spatial distribution daily extreme indices as defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) from 210 stations over period 1981–2010. Then, analyze temporal changes in computed 76 stations, featuring long-term continuous records for 1970–2012, applying non-parametric Mann−Kendall test identify existence trend Sen’s slope method calculate true magnitude this trend. Further, local trends have been tested their field significance distinct physio-geographical regions Nepal, lowlands, middle mountains hills high west (WL, WM WH, respectively), likewise, central (CL, CM CH) eastern (EL, EM EH) Our results suggest patterns high-intensity are quite different annual or monsoonal precipitation. Lowlands (Terai Siwaliks) feature relatively low less wet days (rainy days) exposed extremes. analysis suggests pre-monsoonal significantly increasing lowlands CH, while CH decreasing CM, CL EL. On other hand, post-monsoonal all winter only region. Both east−west contrast, suggesting significant increase region but decrease regions. positive number consecutive dry negative (rainy) whole implying prolongation spell Overall, intensification parts country indicates region-specific risks droughts. The presented findings, combination with population environmental pressures, can support devising adequate adaptation strategies sectors improving livelihood rural communities