Identifying Priority Species and Conservation Opportunities Under Future Climate Scenarios: Amphibians in a Biodiversity Hotspot

• DOI: 10.3996/022014-jfwm-015
• Publication Date: 2014-08-08T19:21:34Z
• Authors: Kyle Barrett; Nathan P. Nibbelink; John C. Maerz
• Keywords: Biodiversity hotspot; Species distribution

Abstract Climate change is driving shifts in the distribution of plants and animals, prioritizing management actions for such a necessary but technically difficult challenge. We worked with state agencies southeastern United States to identify high-priority amphibian species, model vulnerabilities those species regional climate change, long-term climatic refugia within context existing conservation lands. Directly interfacing natural resource experts ensured that 1) prioritization schemes extend beyond political boundaries 2) our models resulted conservation-relevant applications. used correlative project midcentury distributions suitable priority evaluate each species' vulnerability change. Using spatially explicit projected distributions, we ranked protected areas relative their ability provide 2050. identified 21 as species. Fifteen are forecast lose more than 85% climatically habitat. Regions Appalachian Mountains, Florida Panhandle, north-central region Alabama most habitat many Appalachians; however, projections indicated Southeast Coastal Plain be exceedingly scarce. Although topographic relief present Appalachians appears future opportunities via refugia, affords fewer amphibians likely challenging. The approach outlined here could applied across broad range taxa regions.