Long-term dynamics of European towns and cities: towards a spatial model of urban growth

• DOI: 10.4000/cybergeo.566
• Publication Date: 2011-10-13T19:49:39Z
• Authors: Anne Bretagnolle; Hélène Mathian; Denise Pumain; Céline Rozenblat
• Keywords: Geography (General); espace-temps; théorie de l´auto-organisation; spatial convergence; 0211 other engineering and technologies; système urbain; 02 engineering and technology; urban system; urban growth; 11. Sustainability; G1-922; self-organization/self-organisation; croissance urbaine

The aim of the study is to elaborate a model in the framework of self-organisation theory which would describe how interactions between individual towns and cities can produce macro-geographical structures and dynamics at the scale of a continental urban system. Simulations have been made using a statistical model of urban growth in a system of cities (the Gibrat’s model). Results, however, show systematic discrepancies with observations. Coming back to empirical features of urban dynamics on a very long term and for a very large set of towns and cities (Europe, 1600-2000) brings new hypothesis which will be introduced in further formulations of the model.