A Time Delay Dynamical Model for Outbreak of 2019-nCoV and the Parameter Identification

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2002.00418
• Publication Date: 2020-01-01
• Authors: Yu Chen; Jin Cheng; Yu Jiang; Keji Liu
• Keywords: Identification

In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature epidemic is that it can spread latent period, which therefore described by process differential equations. The accumulated numbers classified populations are employed as variables, consistent official data and facilitates parameter identification. numerical methods for prediction identification provided, results show dynamic well predict trend so far. Based on simulations, suggest transmission individuals should be greatly controlled high isolation rate government.