Predicting the ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2003.07912
• Publication Date: 2020-01-01
• Authors: Gábor Vattay
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor effectiveness of measures taken by governments on course epidemic. Here we show that there already a sufficient amount data collected in Italy predict outcome process. We using proper metric, from Hubei Province and has striking similarity, which enables us calculate expected number confirmed cases deaths end Our predictions will improve as new points are generated day day, can help make further public decisions. The method based analysis logistic growth equations describing process macroscopic level. At time writing first version, fatalities was be 6000, predicted crisis April 15, 2020. In this discuss what changed two weeks passed since then. trend drastically March 17, 2020, when Italian health system reached its capacity limit. Without limit, probably 3500 more people would have died. Instead, due limitations, 17.000 die now, five-fold increase. now shifted May 8,