Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions on global COVID-19 transmissions

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2004.04529
• Publication Date: 2020-01-01
• Authors: Xiaohui Chen; Ziyi Qiu
• Keywords: Lift (data mining); Globe; Pandemic

This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission dynamics with data from 9 countries across globe. By constructing scenarios different combinations NPIs, our empirical findings suggest that may avoid lockdown policy imposing school closure, mask wearing and centralized quarantine reach similar outcomes controlling infection. Our results also that, as April 4th, 2020, certain such U.S. Singapore require additional measures NPIs in order control disease transmissions more effectively, while other cautiously consider gradually lift some mitigate costs overall economy.