Complex decision-making strategies in a stock market experiment explained as the combination of few simple strategies

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2103.06121
• Publication Date: 2021-01-01
• Authors: Gaël Poux-Médard; Sergio Cobo-López; Jordi Duch; Roger Guimerà; Marta Sales‐Pardo
• Keywords: Representation

Many studies have shown that there are regularities in the way human beings make decisions. However, our ability to obtain models capture such and can accurately predict unobserved decisions is still limited. We tackle this problem context of individuals who given information relative evolution market prices asked guess direction market. use a networks inference approach with stochastic block (SBM) find model network representation most predictive Our results suggest users mostly recent (about about their previous decisions) guess. Furthermore, analysis SBM groups reveals set strategies used by players process analogous behaviors observed other contexts. study provides example on how quantitatively explore behavior representing as using rigorous model-selection approaches.