Prediction and estimation of random variables with infinite mean or variance

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2303.14752
• Publication Date: 2024-01-19
• Authors: de la Pena, Victor; Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia; Zou, Haolin; Alemayehu, Demissie
• Keywords: Methodology (stat.ME); FOS: Computer and information sciences; 62F10, 62G05, 60G25; 0502 economics and business; 05 social sciences; FOS: Mathematics; Mathematics - Statistics Theory; Statistics Theory (math.ST); Statistics - Methodology

In this paper we propose an optimal predictor of a random variable that has either an infinite mean or an infinite variance. The method consists of transforming the random variable such that the transformed variable has a finite mean and finite variance. The proposed predictor is a generalized arithmetic mean which is similar to the notion of certainty price in utility theory. Typically, the transformation consists of a parametric family of bijections, in which case the parameter might be chosen to minimize the prediction error in the transformed coordinates. The statistical properties of the estimator of the proposed predictor are studied, and confidence intervals are provided. The performance of the procedure is illustrated using simulated and real data.