Classical Myelo-Proliferative Neoplasms emergence and development based on real life incidence and mathematical modeling

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2406.06765
• Publication Date: 2025-02-03
• Authors: Ana Fernández Bar...; Vincent Bansaye; Evelyne Lauret; Morgane Mounier; Valérie Ugo; Sylvie Méléard; Stéphane Giraudier
• Keywords: Constant (computer programming)

Mathematical modeling offers the opportunity to test hypothesis concerning Myeloproliferative emergence and development. We tested different mathematical models based on a training cohort (n=264 patients) (Registre de la c\^ote d'Or) determine evolution times before JAK2V617F classical disorders (respectively Polycythemia Vera Essential Thrombocytemia) are diagnosed. dissected time diagnosis as two main periods: from embryonic development for mutation occur, not disappear enter in proliferation, second corresponding expansion of clonal population until diagnosis. demonstrate using progressively complexified that rate active occurrence is constant doesn't just rely individual variability, but rather increases with age takes median 63.1+/-13 years. A contrario, can be considered constant: 8.8 years once has emerged. Results were validated an external (national FIMBANK Cohort, n=1248 patients). Analyzing Thrombocytema versus Vera, we noticed first period (rate homozygous occurrence) PV approximatively 1.5 more than ET develop when was quasi-similar. In conclusion, our multi-step approach ultimate time-dependent model MPN demonstrates should linked aging mechanism, indicates 8-9 full MPN.