Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response vaccination

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2410.13923
• Publication Date: 2024-10-17
• Authors: Manjari Shankar; Anna-Maria Hartner; Callum Arnold; Ezra Gayawan; Hyolim Kang; Jong‐Hoon Kim; G Nedjati Gilani; Anne Cori; Han Fu; Mark Jit; Rudzani Muloiwa; Allison Portnoy; Caroline Trotter; Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
• Keywords: FOS: Biological sciences; Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution

Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns disease spread, simulate control options public health authorities decision-making, and longer-term operational financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines one most-cost effective response interventions, with potential avert significant morbidity mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute design vaccine by investigating importance timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising use limited supply, highlighting surveillance gaps reporting, determining short- long-term benefits. this review, we examine how have been used inform for 10 VPDs, provide additional insights into challenges modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, communication between modellers stakeholders. We illustrate that while policy-oriented response, they only be good them.