The impact of job stability on monetary poverty in Italy: causal small area estimation

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2502.12376
• Publication Date: 2025-02-17
• Authors: Katarzyna Reluga; Dehan Kong; Setareh Ranjbar; Nicola Salvati; Mark van der Laan
• Keywords: Financial Stability; Small Area Estimation

Job stability - encompassing secure contracts, adequate wages, social benefits, and career opportunities is a critical determinant in reducing monetary poverty, as it provides households with reliable income enhances economic well-being. This study leverages EU-SILC survey census data to estimate the causal effect of job on poverty across Italian provinces, quantifying its influence analyzing regional disparities. We introduce novel small area estimation (CSAE) framework that integrates global local strategies for heterogeneous treatment estimation, effectively addressing sparsity at provincial level. Furthermore, we develop general bootstrap scheme construct confidence intervals, applicable regardless method used estimating nuisance parameters. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate our proposed estimators outperform classical inference methods terms while maintaining computational scalability large datasets. Applying this methodology real-world data, uncover significant relationships between six regions, offering insights into disparities their implications evidence-based policy design.