Climate change and impact on distribution of tree species in the cloud forest of Oaxaca

• DOI: 10.5154/r.rchscfa.2021.02.008
• Publication Date: 2022-05-02T18:03:32Z
• Authors: Sandra Altamirano...; Julio C. Ramírez-...; Daniel F. Díaz-Po...; Ricardo Balam-Nar...; Isolda Luna-Vega; Raúl Contreras-Me...
• Keywords: Cloud forest; Tree (set theory)

Introduction: Climate change represents a problem that generates long-term impacts and is considered threat to the conservation of many species. Objective: To evaluate impact climate on distribution areas 10 trees species characteristic cloud forests in state Oaxaca. Materials methods: The was evaluated for two-time horizons (2050 2080) two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 8.5) under Had GEM2-ES general atmospheric circulation model. Current future modeled with MaxEnt. Carpinus tropicalis, Juglans pyriformis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Litsea glaucescens, Magnolia dealbata, schiedeana, Ostrya virginiana, Symplocos coccinea, Zinowiewia concinna Taxus globosa were obtained from herbarium specimen review. Results discussion: In RCP 4.5, J. L. glaucescens S. coccinea increased (2.8 % 20.5 %) their area distribution. this scenario, rest reduced by up 30 compared current 8.5-2050, pyriformis O. virginiana had gain more than 5 %. All showed reduction greater 8.5- 2080 scenario. models curve 0.8 partial ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) 1.7. Conclusions: Understanding response will serve as basis proposing monitoring plans, since nine them are some category risk.