Developing an integrated assessment model to explore optimal cost-benefit paths for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1640
• Publication Date: 2024-07-01T10:31:36Z
• Authors: Xuanming Su; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tokuta Yokohata; Katsumasa Tanaka; Shinichiro Fujimori; Jun'ya Takakura; Rintaro Yamaguchi; Weiwei Xiong
• Keywords: Representative Concentration Pathways; Economic model

Abstract. Most recent cost-benefit Integrated Assessment Models have used only one reference scenario and focused on reducing mainly CO2 emissions. This goal may not adequately account for the uncertainties arising from diverse socioeconomic developments potential mitigating effects of emissions individual greenhouse gases, aerosols, pollutants. We developed an Model framework by combining a module with reduced-complexity climate module. represented Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios 1) calculating new set marginal abatement cost curves based most integrated assessment model, 2) creating SSP-dependent damage function process-based impact simulation results, 3) extending evaluation time to year 2450. The analysis revealed that SSP achieved various rates control result was patterns optimal temperatures, including maximum temperature stabilized end period. model simulations showed importance distinguishing options gases distinct growth scenarios. also show example long-term projection spanning several centuries as well variety assumptions assessing change policies consequences.