Do catchment characteristics drive extreme discharge tail behavior in the Meuse catchment? Insights from 1,040 years of synthetic discharge data. 

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16095
• Publication Date: 2024-03-09T03:12:10Z
• Authors: Anais Couasnon; Laurène Bouaziz; Ruben Imhoff; Hessel Winsemius; Mark Hegnauer; Niek van der Sleen; Robert Slomp; Leon van Voorst; Henk van den Brink
• Keywords: Discharge; Water discharge; Catchment area

Understanding extreme discharge behavior is of importance for flood design and risk management. For example, estimates large return periods such as the 100-year period or higher are often needed a basis hazard maps dike design. Yet, frequency analysis based on decade-long records show uncertainty these frequencies, among others due to statistical from distribution parameters.  This not case shape parameter, key parameter that describes upward downward curvature tail thus an indicator behavior.  study provides robust by using 1,040 years synthetic daily generated Meuse catchment part EMfloodResilience project Interreg Euregio Meuse-Rhine program. The spatially-distributed hydrological model wflow_sbm, calibrated validated catchment, forced with 16 climate ensembles 65 representative current physically-based KNMI regional RACMO at hourly time step. annual maxima (AM) (Oct-Sep) retrieved continuous series, GEV fit AM. We observe clear spatial pattern across catchment. Using this dataset parameters, we also review possible reasons different obtained respect rainfall statistics, characteristics river systems following In doing so, aim bridge value modelling our understanding signatures present in