Leveraging High-Performance Computing for Enhanced Lava Flow Forecasting Workflow

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16329
• Publication Date: 2024-03-09T03:12:10Z
• Authors: Antonio Costa; Louise Cordrie; Giovanni Macedonio; Gaetana Ganci; Annalisa Cappello; Francesco Zuccarello
• Keywords: Volcanic hazards

The integration of lava flow forecasting models with satellite remote sensing techniques marks a significant advancement in quantitative hazard assessment for effusive volcanic eruptions. Within the framework DT-Geo project, we are developing workflow that harnesses High-Performance Computing (HPC) capabilities, aiming to improve through ensemble-based and data assimilation methods. At core is VLAVA code, which simulates propagation, temperature-dependent viscosity over complex topography, erupting from one or more vents. simulation runs given time period (order days), after simulated deposit compared observed  field and, eventually, observations assimilated into model further simulation. measured include changes eruption source parameters and/or extension temperature field. These derived direct on by airborne, drones satellites (e.g.: Pléiades, EOS-ASTER, SEVIRI, MODIS, VIIRS, Landsat, Sentinel, etc.). Data conducted using PDAF, dedicated software offering various approaches, including Kalman filters, nonlinear variational output provides potentially impacted area flows, thickness distribution, both single scenario (utilized estimating impact flow) an ensemble weighted scenarios (for generating probabilistic maps). We present overarching concept share preliminary results obtained historical eruptions Mount Etna.