Impact of Socio-Economic and Climatic Scenarios on Power Trade Vulnerability in Africa

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5993
• Publication Date: 2024-03-08T15:42:09Z
• Authors: Teresa Bonserio; Angelo Carlino; Matteo Giuliani; Andrea Francesco ...
• Keywords: Vulnerability; Economic power

Energy security in Africa is seriously compromised by the continent's degree of political instability. Corruption, armed conflicts, and ineffective governmental institutions impede maintenance existing energy infrastructure deter new foreign investment. As a result, many African nations face unreliable power supplies, hampering economic growth. This effect, however, usually overlooked large-scale systems planning, which often uniquely based on cost optimality considerations. study aims to quantify vulnerability cost-optimal potential deficits arising from countries' instability.  To do so, we examine generation mixes trades over 2020-2050 using six scenarios obtained with OSeMOSYS-TEMBA system model. The harmonize assumptions regarding socio-economic development, land-use change, climate change impact water availability for hydropower SSP-RCP framework. Moreover, capacity factors planned projects are included, considering both median very dry hydrological regimes. In each scenario, assess trade-related risk at continental country scales. measure expresses international according instability participating countries. governance indicators, reflecting instability, projected SSP until 2050. stochastically due operational deviations caused Our results show that countries representing hotspots located western, southern central-eastern Africa. These aligned those an evaluation ecosystem more ambitious policy higher risk, especially Instead, hydrology associated reduced eastern increased Africa.  underscore crucial need stable frameworks cooperation foster sustainable development region. Strategic interventions can indeed produce tangible impacts reducing risks short term.