Volcanic fire hazard modeling

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6412
• Publication Date: 2024-03-08T15:42:09Z
• Authors: Roberto Guardo; Giuseppe Bilotta; Gaetana Ganci; Francesco Zuccarello; Daniele Andronico; Annalisa Cappello
• Keywords: Volcanic hazards

Numerical models have been extensively explored for simulating forest fire propagation, employing a spectrum of approaches ranging from intricate physical to simpler graph or cellular automata-based models. These rely on various input parameters such as humidity, radiant capacity, vegetation flammability, tree types, wind and topography accurately replicate spread. When integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), these facilitate classifying soil mapping burnt areas. Despite the progress in models, dedicated model volcanic-induced fires is notably absent. Leveraging our expertise lava flow hazard modeling, we introduced novel numerical address current lack specific fires. This based automata tackle issues related accessibility, usability, computational costs inherent existing applications. Indeed, increased availability low-cost, high-performance computing hardware has enhanced accessibility cost-effectiveness simulations, enabling simulation propagation under multiple environmental conditions. Our new able generate scenarios, providing insights into likelihood combustion. We present test cases using Stromboli Island case study, it an area where volcanic eruptions already caused that also contributed human loss. results exhibit good spatial accuracy, Brier score 0.188±0.002 0.073±0.001 spread July 3, 2019, May 25, 2022, respectively.