The analysis of sub-daily scale temperature changes for Hungary 

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20252
• Publication Date: 2025-03-15T05:58:15Z
• Authors: Péter Szabó; Anna Kis; Ferenc Divinszki; Rita Pongrácz

Understanding sub-daily scale temperature variability can be used for evaluating the impacts of climate change on human health, agriculture and daily life. In particular, higher temperature fluctuations (within a day, or from one day to another) increase physiological and psychological stress, demanding more frequent adaptation in areas such as clothing choices and energy management. The Pannonian Basin, encompassing Hungary, provides an ideal setting for this analysis due to its distinctive climate, well-defined four seasons, and sensitivity to global warming, which amplify the effects of temperature variability.This study focuses on diurnal temperature range (DTR), inter-day temperature variability, and intra-day temperature changes using various thresholds. These metrics are analyzed on monthly and seasonal scales. Historical (1971-2024) DTR and inter-day variability were derived from the homogenized, high-resolution HuClim database using daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. For intra-day changes, we utilize hourly temperature data from ERA5-Land, a reanalysis product. Future projections are derived from an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations, encompassing multiple scenarios: RCP2.6 (limiting global warming to 2 °C), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (business-as-usual).Preliminary results indicate an increase in DTR and inter-day temperature variability across all months, especially in spring and late summer. Intra-day temperature changes show substantial increases during spring and minor changes during winter. Positive intra-day temperature changes peak in spring, while negative changes are more frequent in summer. These findings highlight the growing temperature volatility in the region, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture and human health to moderate the impacts of climate change.Acknowledgements. This work has been implemented by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014) project within the framework of Hungary's National Recovery and Resilience Plan supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility of the European Union. In addition, this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2409-68866).