Explaining recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps by changes in atmospheric influences

• DOI: 10.5194/ems2021-214
• Publication Date: 2021-06-18T10:29:22Z
• Authors: Juliette Blanchet; Antoine Blanc; Jean-Dominique Cr...
• Keywords: Maxima

<p>We analyze recent trends in extreme daily precipitation the Southwestern Alps. We consider a high-resolution dataset of 1 x1 km<sup>2</sup> for period 1958-2017. A robust method trend estimation is considered, based on nonstationary value distribution and homogeneous neighborhood approach. The results show contrasting depending season. In autumn, are significantly increasing most Greater Alpine Region, with an increase up to 100% average maxima 20-year return level between 1958 2017, while French Alps mainly decreasing extremes. Knowing that autumn experiences largest maxima, Mediterranean area concern risk protection.  In winter, valleys medium mountain areas surrounding Northern significant extremes, inner Alps, Swiss Valais Aosta Valley trends. other seasons, mostly negative area, less organized  For all part changes extremes can be related dominant atmospheric influences generating particularly influenced region shows particular, strong positive Southern France concomitant influence maxima. However some exceptions notable counter-intuitive given influences. </p>