Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-2019-54
• Publication Date: 2019-09-20T05:37:21Z
• Authors: Andreas Geiges; Paola Yanguas Parra; Marina Andrijevic; William Hare; Alexander Nauels; Peter Pfleiderer; Michiel Schaeffer; Carl-Friedrich Sc...
• Keywords: Global temperature; Benchmark (surveying); Baseline (sea); Representative Concentration Pathways

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition as under the Paris Agreement reflected in National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient achieve Agreement's 1.5 °C long term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, question how much collective improvement achieved a pivotal one credibility of international climate regime. The recent Special Report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change on Global Warming has assessed wide range scenarios that Those pathways characterized by substantial increase near-term action total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what implied current NDCs. Here we assess outcomes different NDC updating fall short achieving this benchmark. We find incremental improvements reduction targets even if globally, align with goals Agreement. provide estimates mean 2100 update illustrate impacts those including extreme temperature, long-term sea level rise economic damages most vulnerable countries. Under assumption maintaining beyond, project Gross Domestic Product (GDP) tropical countries 50–60 compared no-climate change scenario sea-level close 2 m 2300. About half these can be avoided limiting warming °C, or below. Scenarios more do not lead comparable reductions impacts. An aggregated big emitters 33 does deliver potential °C. Our results underscore transformational required avoid worst change.