Decline in Etesian winds after large volcanic eruptions in the last millennium

• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-811-2022
• Publication Date: 2022-07-29T13:21:17Z
• Authors: Stergios Misios; Ioannis Logothetis; Mads F. Knudsen; Christoffer Karoff; Vassilis Amiridis; Kleareti Tourpali
• Keywords: Forcing (mathematics); Vulcanian eruption; Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. The northerly Etesian winds are a stable summertime circulation system in the eastern Mediterranean, emerging from steep pressure gradient between central Europe and Balkans high-pressure Anatolian low-pressure systems. influenced by variability Indian summer monsoon (ISM), but their sensitivity to external forcing on interannual longer timescales is not well understood. Here, for first time, we investigate of large volcanic eruptions set model simulations over last millennium reanalysis 20th century. We provide evidence significant signatures, manifested as robust reduction wind speed total number days with July August. These responses all strong millennium, extreme case Samalas, ensemble-mean response suggests post-eruption without Etesians. decline attributed weakening ISM summers, which associated reduced large-scale subsidence weakened surface gradients Mediterranean. Our analysis identifies stronger Northern Hemisphere forcing, particularly volcanoes before century, while latest eruption Pinatubo modelled observed insignificant. findings could improve seasonal predictions Mediterranean summers after eruptions.