Qatar Prediction Rule Using ED Indicators of COVID-19 at Triage

• DOI: 10.5339/qmj.2021.18
• Publication Date: 2021-08-12T09:31:20Z
• Authors: Sameer A. Pathan; Caroline E. Thomas; Zain A. Bhutta; Isma Qureshi; Sarah A. Thomas; Jibin Moinudheen; Stephen H. Thomas
• Keywords: Triage; Tachypnea

The presence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated disease, COVID-19 has had an enormous impact on the operations emergency department (ED), particularly triage area. aim study was to derive validate a prediction rule that would be applicable Qatar's adult ED population predict COVID-19-positive patients.This is retrospective including patients. data were obtained from electronic medical records (EMR) Hamad Medical Corporation (HMC) for three EDs. Data General Hospital used internally (Q-PREDICT). Al Wakra Khor formed external validation set consisting same time frame. variables in model included weekly COVID-19-positivity rate following patient characteristics: region (nationality), age, acuity, cough, fever, tachypnea, hypoxemia, hypotension. All statistical analyses executed with Stata 16.1 (Stata Corp). team appropriate institutional approval.The 45,663 patients who tested COVID-19. Out these, 47% (n = 21461) positive. derivation-set very good discrimination (c 0.855, 95% Confidence intervals (CI) 0.847-0.861). Cross-validation demonstrated validation-set 0.857, CI 0.849-0.863) retained high discrimination. A Q-PREDICT score ( ≥ 13) nearly 6-fold increase likelihood being positive (likelihood ratio 5.9, 5.6-6.2), sensitivity 84.7% (95% CI, 84.0%-85.4%). low ≤ 6) 20-fold negative 19.3, 16.7-22.1), specificity 98.7% 98.5%-98.9%).The simple scoring system based information readily collected at front desk helps status triage. performed well internal datasets state Qatar.