Modeling of Dengue cases in pediatric age using the objective regression regressive methodology in Villa Clara, Cuba

• DOI: 10.53771/ijbpsa.2023.5.2.0048
• Publication Date: 2023-06-17T04:33:30Z
• Authors: Fimia Duarte R; Osés Rodríguez R; González Ronda Y; del Valle Laveaga D; Diéguez Fernández L; Wilford González FM; Robert Vogt P; González Rodrígu...
• Keywords: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis; Population; Geometry; Pediatrics; Dengue; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Sociology; Virology; Health Sciences; FOS: Mathematics; Pathology; Global Impact of Arboviral Diseases; Sanitation; Demography; Geography; Incidence (geometry); Statistics; Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health; Dengue fever; FOS: Sociology; Environmental health; Public Health and Environmental Management; Socioeconomics; Environmental Science; Physical Sciences; Medicine; Regression analysis; Mathematics

Dengue continues to be the main arbovirosis, with endemic characteristics, in at least 100 countries, affecting an average of 50 million patients per year, and a high incidence pediatric ages. To mathematically model cases age through methodology Objective Regression Regressive, during period 2016-2021 province Villa Clara, Cuba. A descriptive, retrospective, analytical-statistical (Objective Regressive methodology) prospective longitudinal study was carried out. The area corresponded Clara province, which is located center Cuba, where population under 13 municipalities that make up province. total number fever six years covered by 2 013. database created for confirmed 2016 2021, specifically children 18 age, data were entered files processed using SPSS version 22 statistical package, made it possible carry out mathematical modeling cases, short long term. plotting showed highest months from July November, 28 studied. short-term depends on returned 1, 2, 7 14 months, indicates strong dependence previous month, so all monitoring, surveillance, management, control sanitation actions advance will have positive impact following while long-term depended 12 trend turned significant. It Dengue, non-significant decrease term, this significant increase, which, ago, best being able predict behavior infectious entity one year advance, as well extension longer dates years.