Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

• DOI: 10.7554/elife.19571
• Publication Date: 2016-11-25T15:16:46Z
• Authors: Madhur S Dhingra; Jean Artois; Timothy P Robinson; Catherine Linard; Celia Chaiban; Ioannis Xenarios; Robin Engler; Robin Liechti; Dmitri Kuznetsov; Xiangming Xiao; Sophie Von Dobsch...; Filip Claes; Scott H Newman; Gwenaëlle Dauphin; Marius Gilbert
• Keywords: Highly pathogenic; Cross-validation

Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at scale. Best using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic variables, with a strong association domestic duck extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support more systematic cross-validation in large-scale modelling compared standard random lead unreliable measure extrapolation accuracy. A H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, group viruses recently spread Asia US, shows comparison lower capacity HPAI models, stronger intensively densities anthropogenic factors.