2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) nosocomial outbreak in South Korea: insights from modeling

• DOI: 10.7717/peerj.1505
• Publication Date: 2015-12-17T04:38:14Z
• Authors: Ying-Hen Hsieh
• Keywords: Index case; Basic reproduction number; Coronavirus

Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases MERS-CoV infections have been reported Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent nosocomial outbreak South Korea quickly became second largest such with 186 total 36 deaths a little one month, only to Saudi Arabia country-specific number cases. Methods. We use simple mathematical model, Richards trace temporal course outbreak. pinpoint its turning point transmissibility via basic reproduction R 0 order ascertain occurrence this how it was brought under control. Results. estimated ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 after onset date index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as time peak incidence for date. is range between 7.0 19.3. Discussion Conclusion. occurred around 27-29, when control measures were implemented confirmation first cluster patient. Furthermore, significantly higher those from past outbreaks East, which attributable nature Our estimate further highlights importance risk involved superspreading events crowded settings hospitals. Similar 2003 SARS epidemic, infectious diseases low community like could still occur initially large clusters infections, but can be effectively controlled timely intervention measures.