A5043957165- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Conflict and Governance
- International Development and Aid
- Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies
- European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies
- Global Peace and Security Dynamics
- Nuclear Issues and Defense
- Defense, Military, and Policy Studies
- Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Peacebuilding and International Security
- Information and Cyber Security
- World Systems and Global Transformations
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Global Economic and Social Development
- Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East
- Corruption and Economic Development
- Transboundary Water Resource Management
- War, Ethics, and Justification
- Economic Sanctions and International Relations
- Global trade and economics
- Space exploration and regulation
- Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Political Influence and Corporate Strategies
- Global Security and Public Health
University of California, San Diego
2014-2024
UC San Diego Health System
2023
University of California System
2016-2020
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2020
University System of Maryland
2019
Columbia University
2001-2016
Pennsylvania State University
1998-2015
University of Southern California
2015
University of Essex
2006-2014
University of Zurich
2011
It is widely accepted that democracies are less conflict prone, if only with other democracies. Debate persists, however, about the causes underlying liberal peace. This article offers a contrarian account based on political economy. Economic development, free markets, and similar interstate interests all anticipate lessening of militarized disputes or wars. “capitalist peace” also accounts for effect commonly attributed to regime type in standard statistical tests democratic
Research appears to substantiate the liberal conviction that trade fosters global peace. Still, existing understanding of linkages between conflict and international economics is limited in at least two ways. First, cross-border economic relationships are far broader than just trade. Global capital markets dwarf exchange goods services, states engage varying degrees monetary policy coordination. Second, manner which said inhibit behavior implausible light new analytical insights about causes...
Nuclear weapons proliferation is a topic of intense interest and concern among both academics policy makers. Diverse opinions exist about the determinants options to alter incentives. We evaluate variety explanations in two stages nuclear proliferation, presence production programs actual possession weapons. examine quantitatively, using data collected by authors on national latent capability several other variables, while controlling for conditionality based program. find that security...
Cyberwar has been described as a revolution in military affairs, transformation of technology and doctrine capable overturning the prevailing world order. This characterization threat from cyberwar, however, reflects common tendency to conflate means ends; studying what could happen cyberspace (or anywhere else) makes little sense without considering how conflict over internet is going realize objectives commonly addressed by terrestrial warfare. To supplant established modes conflict,...
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments the empirical literature. This commentary revisits in order to understand discrepancy. We believe origins disagreement can be traced back article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers shortcomings with respect sample selection analytical coherence. modified...
It is widely believed that cyberspace offense dominant because of technical characteristics undermine deterrence and defense. This argument mistakes the ease deception on Internet for a categorical attack. As intelligence agencies have long known, double-edged sword. Covert attackers must exercise restraint against complex targets in order to avoid compromises resulting mission failure or retaliation. More importantly, defenders can also employ deceptive concealment ruses confuse ensnare...
A basic debate in world politics involves the impact of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) on international conflict. Liberals, functionalists, and others see IGOs as capable transforming global anarchy, while realists emphasize essential irrelevance managing such fundamental processes war peace. Recent quantitative studies also yield disparate conclusions depending particular econometric assumptions, implying variously that foster pacific relations among states, have no dispute...
A debate exists over whether (and to what degree) the democratic peace is explained by joint democracy or a lack of motives for conflict between states that happen be democratic. Gartzke (1998) applies expected utility theory and shows an index states' preference similarity based on United Nations General Assembly roll-call votes (affinity) accounts much militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) democracies. Oneal Russett (1997b, 1998, 1999) respond arguing UN voting itself function regime...
At least since Thucydides, students of international relations have sought rational explanations for the advent war. Rationalist assume purposive action; states are said to make reasoned decisions about use force. Although rationalist proven persuasive, durable, and offer basis cumulative theorizing, they also imply substantial limits on what we can know I show that most general explanation war dictates onset is theoretically indeterminate. We cannot predict in individual cases whether will...
Contrasting claims about the consequences of nuclear weapons rely on different interpretations how leaders respond to risk, uncertainty, and balance power. Nuclear optimists use deterrence theory argue that proliferation can promote stability inhibit force. Pessimists precipitates hubris, accident, or anger heightens risk war. It is also possible have no net effect dispute propensity. Since states fashion their own bargains, status bound influence distribution influence. Proliferation...
Researchers continue to debate the impact of trade on interstate conflict. While many view as pacifying, others argue that dependencies increase friction and risk war. We provide a theory explains how cross-border economic ties alternately enhance or impede international cooperation. Three main factors account for heterogeneous effects conflict: interdependence, asymmetry, multipolarity. Interdependence can act substitute for, deterrent to, militarized violence. In former case,...
Studies of signaling in international relations reveal how punishing bluffing ex post through domestic audience costs or opposition groups facilitates credible ante communication among states and reduces the impetus toward war. Global integration economic markets may also reduce uncertainty by making talk costly ante. Autonomous global capital can respond dramatically to political crises. To degree that globalization forces leaders choose between pursuing competitive goals maintaining...
Recent research builds on the observation that democracies have more durable alliances to argue make reliable allies. This need not be case. Alliances serve as commitment devices, adding ex ante credibility states' claims about post behavior. Variation in alliance durability must reflect differences desirability of formalizing alignments. Put simply, are “most improved” by formal commitments. We offer two related explanations for why might actually less partners. Information costs...
Conventional wisdom suggests that cultural differences make conflict more likely. Culture can unite and divide, but there exists little agreement among scholars over how identity forms states, what distinctions are most salient, when is Researchers have tended to ‘confirm’ the role of in an ex post facto fashion, looking only at actual conflicts with differences, without considering opportunities for groups. We address a series problems existing conceptions ethnicity. distinguish between...
While most quantitative studies find a negative relationship between economic interdependence and interstate disputes, research by Barbieri finds that precipitates conflict. Participants in the debate suggest several causes, but we show alternative variable constructions are sufficient to account for discrepant findings. A simple formal equivalence unites respective operationalizations of dyadic used Oneal & Russett ( trade dependence, ij /GDP i ) share, /trade with consensus...
Does the nature of a nation's political institutions influence types countries with which it allies? Some previous research has suggested that democracies tend to ally other democracies. This study reexamines alliance patterns by assessing broader linkage between regime type and partnership. The authors present refinement designs, using new data from Polity III updated correlates war (COW) sets analyze all alliances 1815 1992. bipolar structures cold (NATO Warsaw Pact) appear be aberrations...
Authors’ Note: We are grateful for generous financial support from the Department of Political Science at University California San Diego, Government Georgetown University, California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Project Managing Atom International Security Program both Belfer Center Affairs Harvard University. Journal Resolution Volume 53 Number 2 April 2009 151-160 © SAGe Publications 10.1177/0022002708330039 http://jcr.sagepub.com hosted http://online.sagepub.com A...
Nations have historically sought power and prosperity through control of physical space. In recent decades, however, this has largely ceased. Most states that could do so appear relucant, while the weak cannot expand. This article presents a theory imperialism decolonization explains both historic cycles expansion decline collective demise urge to colonize. Technological shocks enable expansion, rising labour costs dynamics military technology gradually dilute imperial advantage....
Growing interest in the social consequences of climate change has fueled speculation that global warming could lead to an increase various forms political violence. This article examines effects on international conflict subsequent onset European industrialization. Surprisingly, analysis at system level suggests is associated with a reduction interstate conflict. naive relationship suspect, however, as increased consumption carbon-based fuels itself changing patterns politics and prosperity....
Cyberwar is routinely over-hyped as a substitute weapon of mass destruction. More typically, cyber operations work complements to power in other domains, generally limiting the aggressive potential cyberspace on its own. However, there are situations where complementarity can undermine stability domains most dramatic fashion. We examine unusual contingency nuclear brinksmanship crisis which offensive (OCO) against weapons and/or their command, control, and communications (NC3) deterrence...
Russia’s cyber-enabled influence operations (CEIO) have garnered significant public, academic and policy interest. 126 million Americans were reportedly exposed to efforts the 2016 US election on Facebook. Indeed, extent that such shape political outcomes, they may prove far more consequential than other, flamboyant forms of cyber conflict. Importantly, CEIOs highlight human dimension Focused ‘hacking minds’ affecting individuals behind keyboards, as opposed hacking networked systems,...
Recent research suggests that free markets and economic development contribute to a reduction in interstate conflict. This "capitalist peace" has been seen alternately complement or supplant the more well-known democratic peace effect. Here, we compare behavior of democracies capitalist dyads context Interstate Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset. The ICB data offers number advantages assessing conflict decisions national leaders, rather than accidents subordinates others. In particular, explore...
Abstract In an article printed last year in International Organization , Keohane, Macedo, and Moravcsik argued that multilateral organizations (MLO) could actually be good for democracy. We argue KMM discount the prospect MLO influence can detrimental to democracies not because MLOs are “distant, elitist, technocratic” but precisely highly political. have much offer improving welfare of citizens facilitating coordinations among states. They likely improve procedural functions without a cost...
A substantial literature examines the causes of nuclear proliferation, but few studies have addressed why states decide on a particular portfolio weapon systems once they acquired basic capability. We advance theory force structure, positing that seek diverse set capabilities for deterrence, also face major resource and organizational constraints. number factors may help to explain forces ultimately field, including availability, experience as power, bureaucratic politics, conventional...