A5108685985- Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Global Financial Crisis and Policies
- Market Dynamics and Volatility
- Economic theories and models
- Economic Policies and Impacts
- Economic Theory and Policy
- Global trade and economics
- Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques
- Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth
- Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
- Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Traffic and Road Safety
- Merger and Competition Analysis
- Economic Growth and Productivity
- Banking stability, regulation, efficiency
- Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues
- Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Housing Market and Economics
- Safety Warnings and Signage
- Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
- Traffic control and management
- Corporate Finance and Governance
- Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Human-Automation Interaction and Safety
Fudan University
2005-2023
Hazelden Betty Ford Graduate School of Addiction Studies
2023
Federal Reserve Board of Governors
2006-2020
Federal Reserve
2006-2020
University of Central Florida
2014-2019
Orlando Health
2013-2016
Johns Hopkins University
2014
University of South Australia
2013
University of Wisconsin–Madison
2006
Reserve Bank of Australia
2006
Failures of the law one price explain much variation in real C.P.I. exchange rates. We use data for U.S. cities and Canadian 14 categories consumer prices to examine nature deviations from price. The distance between explains a significant amount similar goods different cities. But, is higher two located countries than equidistant same country. By our most conservative measure, crossing border adds as volatility adding 2500 miles
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures uncertainty, risk, and volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, relative advantages in usage, effects on financial market economic outcomes. The divided into four categories based the construction methodology: news-based, survey-based, econometric-based, market-based measures. While heightened uncertainty is typically associated with negative real outcomes, magnitude these...
Many companies on China's stock markets have traditionally had separate, restricted classes of shares for domestic residents and foreigners. These are identical other than who can own them, but foreigners generally paid only about one-quarter the price by residents. We argue that higher level (and volatility) share prices is consistent with simplest asset pricing model, assuming plausible differences-about four percentage points-in expected rates return foreign investors. attribute low...
Revisions to GDP announcements are known be quite large in all G-7 countries; quarterly growth rate revisions regularly more than a full percentage point at an annualized rate. We examine the predictability of these using standard statistical tests whether preliminary announcement is rational forecast subsequently revised data. Previous work suggests that U.S. largely unpredictable, as would case if reflect news not available time number produced.We find degree varies throughout G-7....
We assess whether capital controls effectively insulate countries from U.S. monetary shocks, examining a large range of country experiences in unified estimation framework. estimate the effect identified shocks on exchange rate and foreign interest rates, test with less open accounts exhibit systematically smaller responses. find essentially no evidence this. Other factors such as regime or degree dollarization explain more cross‐country differences The significant responses we do are...
Abstract We assess the relationship between monetary policy, foreign exchange risk premia, and term premia including period at zero lower bound (ZLB). estimate a structural vector autoregression U.S. interest rates identify policy shocks through method that uses high‐frequency surprises as external instrument achieves identification without using implausible restrictions. split out effects of different types apply ZLB, forward guidance asset purchases. This allows us to measure on...
This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policy by Federal Reserve, Bank England, European Central and Japan on bond yields, stock prices exchange rates. We use common methodologies for four central banks, with daily intradaily asset price data. emphasize data to identify causal effect surprises. find that these policies are effective in easing financial conditions when rates stuck at zero lower bound, apparently largely reducing term premia.
We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate real GDP growth falls by around two percentage points in affected relative to unaffected year outbreak. Bounce-back is rapid strong, especially when compared non-health crises. Unemployment less educated workers higher exhibits more persistence, there significantly greater persistence female unemployment than male. Moreover,...
This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices, from above 0.5 during the 1980s somewhere neighborhood of 0.2 last decade. coefficient is robust measure foreign prices that included regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether estimation done levels or differences, and are as an explanatory variable. Notably, largest estimates obtained when commodity excluded regression. In this case, captures both direct effect on indirect operating through...
This paper examines Japan's experience in the first half of 1990s to shed some light on several issues that arise as inflation declines toward zero. Is it possible recognize when an economy is moving into a phase sustained deflation? How quickly should monetary policy respond sharp inflation? Are there factors inhibit transmission mechanism interest rates approach zero? What role for fiscal warding off deflationary episode? We conclude slump was very much unanticipated by Japanese...
We investigate the possibility that large current account deficits of U.S. are outcome optimizing behavior. develop a simple long-run world equilibrium model in which is determined by expected discounted present value its future share GDP relative to GDP. The suggests under some reasonable assumptions about growth rest advanced countries--more modest than over past 20 years--the deficit near optimal levels. then explore implications for real exchange rate. Under plausible assumptions,...