Economic theories of voting argue that party popularity and vote are heavily influenced by the performance economy. Inferences about direction causality between perceptions economy support remain questionable, however. This article evaluates microfoundations economic using multiwave panel data. We model dynamic relationships retrospective perceptions—both sociotropic egocentric—through 1992–97 British electoral cycle. Our findings indicate strongly conditioned prior opinions incumbent...

A B S'I'RA C' I' Butler and Stokes' authoritative analysis of the British electorate concluded that in general voters' political attitudes were poorly formed and, consequence, unstable inconsistent. This paper re-examines this question by developing evaluating multiple-item scales two core dimensions mass beliefs: left-right libertarian-authoritarian values. The are shown to have respectable levels internal consistency, high stability over a one-year period, be useful predictors support for...

Explanations of cross-national variation in levels popular support for democracy can be distinguished by the relative emphasis they place on importance economic and political factors. ‘First generation’ theorists emphasized variables, including development rising expectations. In contrast, ‘second writers have focused role factors, mode transition to itself effectiveness institutions electoral processes which emerge. This article uses national probability samples from Bulgaria, Estonia,...

Journal Article Can there be vague objects? Get access Gareth Evans University CollegeOxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Analysis, Volume 38, Issue 4, October 1978, Page 208, https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/38.4.208 Published: 01 1978

Class voting is supposedly in severe decline advanced industrial democracies. However, this conventional wisdom derives from research using problematic methods and measures an overly simple model of political change. This chapter overviews past current comparative into changes explanations class-based behavior argues for the continued significance class and, by extension, politics contemporary I particularly emphasize importance more appropriate application testing theories that integrate...

The belief that greater understanding leads to more positive attitudes informs many practical initiatives in the public of science. However, there has been comparatively little empirical study justification for this belief. This paper explores relationship between science and levels support using a national sample over 2000 British respondents. analysis indicates internal consistency towards is poor, links general specific areas scientific research are weak. Understanding weakly related...

This article examines the emerging structure of party competition in new democracies Eastern Europe. It argues that relationship between social bases, issue dimensions and stability countries region will vary depending on their differing experience marketization, ethnic homogeneity established statehood. In some countries, predicted framework derive from socio-economic divisions resemble found West; other ethnicity nation-building provide principal structuring factors; yet cases, where...

Many economic voting models assume that individual voters’ reactions to incumbents are strongly conditioned by their perceptions of the performance macroeconomy. However, direction causality between and political preferences is unclear: can be a consequence incumbent support rather than an influence on it. We develop latter thesis examining dynamic relationship retrospective several measures preferences—approval, partisanship, vote—in 2000–2004 U.S. presidential election cycle using ANES...

Why has the association between class and party declined over time? Contrary to conventional wisdom that emphasizes fracturing of social structures blurring boundaries in post-industrial society, it is argued here divisions preferences are conditioned by changing shape structure effect parties’ strategic ideological responses this transformation on choices facing voters. This thesis tested using British survey data from 1959 2006. We demonstrate increasing heterogeneity does not account for...

This article presents a case study of the emergence issue-linkage necessary for cross-cutting European Union cleavage to become electorally salient. We argue that key political decision on immigration in 2004 facilitated new dimension party competition and growth popular support United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leading eventually 2016 EU Referendum. To examine this thesis, we trace impact UK government’s policy (i) rising immigration, (ii) salience (iii) increasing association...

1. Class Voting: From Premature Obituary to Reasoned Appraisal PART 1: THE BROAD COMPARATIVE PICTURE 2. Traditional Voting in 20 Postwar Societies II: CASE STUDY OF WESTERN DEMOCRACIES 3. Modelling the Pattern of British Elections 4. Classes, Unions, and Realignment U.S. Presidential 1952-1992 5. The Secret Life Britain, France, United States Since 1930s 6. Cleavages Party Preferences Germany Old New 7. Changes Norway 8. Politics Swedish Welfare Policies III: NEW CLASS POLITICS...

It has become clear from national surveys, both in Britain and elsewhere, that the attitudes of mass public towards social political issues tend to group together broadly predictable ways. Analyses British Election Study data have consistently found economic such as nationalization, income redistribution government intervention go are largely unrelated moral issues. There course variations results, depending on items included for analysis, but it apparent a rather persistent attitudinal...

Goldthorpe's class schema is arguably the most influential conceptualization and operationalization of social in European sociology. However, as yet there no study schema's validity. The aim this paper to test criterion-related validity employee classes within by examining their association with a range relevant occupational characteristics. Using data from British national probability survey it shown that predicts those characteristics—employment payment conditions future prospects—which...

This article uses the British Election Panel Study to assess impact of voters' and party positions vis-à-vis European integration on Conservative electoral support between 1992 1996. Over this period levels public for declined markedly, so that by 1996 was even closer aggregate opinion, when compared with its main competitors, than it had been at time election. However, an analysis proximity individuals' they then attributed parties indicates divisions over Europe helped turn potential asset...

The ethnic outbidding thesis predicts centrifugal polarisation in ethnically divided party systems. We argue instead that the incentives of power-sharing institutions can encourage development electoral strategies based on ‘ethnic tribune appeals’ which parties combine robust identity representation with increased pragmatism over resource allocation. test these arguments Northern Ireland and show though evidence direct vote switching from moderate to ostensibly ‘extreme’ is prima facie...

The collapse of the class basis party choice in Britain since 1980s has been assumed to result from diminishing distinctiveness social classes postindustrial world. We argue instead that dealignment results impact an ideologically restricted set on electoral relevance values concerning inequality and redistribution. As these provide a mechanism through which divisions translate into differences choice, their declining produces concomitant decline effect position. These propositions are...

To what extent are the social bases of political divisions in former communist societies consistent with those observed Western democracies? This review critically examines theoretical and empirical work on cleavages East European, post-communist societies. It considers initial wave hypotheses concerning structuring party support region evidence patterning preferences that have accrued subsequently, as well somewhat sparser attempts at explaining processes through which these patterns emerge...

This paper focuses on the policy strategies adopted by social democratic parties and their impact class basis of support. It is argued that political appeals matter for explaining development voting. argument tested through a comparison in Austria Switzerland evolving patterns voting two countries. Using election surveys data positions media representation from 1970s to 2000s, article finds Social Democratic Party maintained strong working base. In contrast, facilitated major transformation...

To date, most accounts of the UK’s vote to leave EU have focussed on explaining variation across individuals and constituencies within UK. In this article, we attempt answer a different question, namely ‘Why was it UK that voted leave, rather than any other member state?’. We show has long been one Eurosceptic countries in EU, which argue can be partly explained by Britons’ comparatively weak sense European identity. also existing explanations cannot account for long-standing Euroscepticism:...

The 2017 UK General Election saw the collapse of UKIP and an unusually influential campaign that Labour improving from a likely historic defeat to almost pulling level with Conservatives, denying Theresa May parliamentary majority. We argue election should be understood in two phases: first 2015 start campaign, second itself. former period was characterised by strong switching along Brexit lines, voters defecting heavily Conservatives following outcome EU Referendum, which had enabled make...