Abstract There has been huge recent interest in the potential of making operational weather forecasts using machine learning techniques. As they become a part forecasting toolbox, there is pressing need to understand how well current models can simulate high-impact events. We compare short medium-range Storm Ciarán, European windstorm that caused sixteen deaths and extensive damage Northern Europe, made by numerical prediction models. The four considered (FourCastNet, Pangu-Weather,...

Abstract. Following the disruption to European airspace caused by eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 there has been a move towards producing quantitative predictions volcanic ash concentration using transport and dispersion simulators. However, is no formal framework for determining uncertainties these performing many simulations complex models computationally expensive. In this paper Bayesian linear emulation approach applied Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME)...

Volcanic ash can interact with the earth system on many temporal and spatial scales is a significant hazard to aircraft. In event of volcanic eruption, fast robust decisions need be made by aviation authorities about which routes are safe operate. Such take into account forecasts location issued Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) informed simulations from Transport Dispersion (VATD) models. The estimation time-evolving vertical distribution emissions for use in VATD real time difficult lead large...

Abstract A new technique for objective classification of boundary layers is applied to ground‐based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer data. The observed layer has been classified into nine different types based on those in the Met Office ‘Lock’ scheme, using vertical velocity variance skewness, along with attenuated backscatter coefficient surface sensible heat flux. This probabilistic method three years data from Chilbolton Observatory southern England a climatology...

Abstract. The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from transport and dispersion (VATD) models. In this paper fractions skill score has been used for first time evaluate spatial accuracy VATD simulations relative satellite retrievals ash. This objective measure provides more information than traditional point-by-point metrics, such as success index Pearson correlation coefficient, it takes...

Abstract The long duration of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption provided a unique opportunity to measure widely dispersed volcanic ash cloud. Layers were observed by European Aerosol Research Lidar Network with mean depth 1.2 km and standard deviation 0.9 km. In this paper we evaluate ability Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric‐dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) simulate layers examine processes controlling their depth. NAME simulates distal layer depths exceptionally well 0.7 dominant...

Abstract In the event of a volcanic eruption decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using transport and dispersion models. this paper we quantitatively evaluate spatial skill simulations satellite retrievals from Eyjafjallajökull during period 7 16 May 2010. We find that at start period, 7–10 May, model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent can predict distribution satellite‐retrieved within 0.5° × latitude/longitude. However, 10 there decrease in accuracy 2.5°× 2.5°...

ABSTRACT Volcanic ash poses an ongoing risk to safety in the airspace worldwide. The accuracy with which volcanic dispersion can be forecast depends on conditions of atmosphere into it is emitted. In this study, meteorological ensemble forecasts are used drive a transport and model for 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption Iceland. From analysis these simulations, authors determine why skill deterministic-meteorological decreases increasing residence time identify atmospheric drop occurs most...

Abstract. Volcanic ash advisories are produced by specialised forecasters who combine several sources of observational data and volcanic dispersion model outputs based on their subjective expertise. These used the aviation industry to make decisions about where it is safe fly. However, both observations simulations subject various uncertainties that not represented in operational forecasts. Quantification communication these fundamental for making more informed decisions. Here, we develop a...

Abstract. Due to the remote location of many volcanoes, there is substantial uncertainty about timing, amount and vertical distribution volcanic ash released when they erupt. One approach determine these properties combine prior estimates with satellite retrievals simulations from atmospheric dispersion models create posterior emission estimates, constrained by both observations using a technique known as source inversion. However, results are dependent not only on accuracy assumptions,...

Synthesis of gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) with controllable particle size and stable dispersion through green chemistry without using toxic regents is crucial for biomedical applications. In this study, spherical AuNPs in the range 8 to 18 nm were synthesized by reduction HAuCl4 only fruit juices/extract adding any other chemicals. By controlling chemical reaction steps adjusting pH solution at a later stage reaction, sizes fine tuned 4.5 ± 2.0 nm, 5.9 2.5 6.0 1.5 A. deliciosa, P. persica, M....

Abstract During volcanic eruptions, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres issue ash advisories for aviation showing the forecasted outermost extent of cloud. 2010 Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Met Office produced supplementary forecasts quantitative concentration, due to demand from airlines. Additionally, satellite retrievals estimated concentration are now available. To test how these additional graphical representations affect flight decisions, whether users infer uncertainty in...

The Tampa Bay Water seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) facility is the first large-capacity desalination plant in United States. feedwater source for an estuarine system that biologically very productive and contains naturally-occurring high concentrations of algae, marine bacteria, total organic carbon (mostly dissolved), transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), biopolymer fraction natural matter, phosphate. high-organic composition places stress on conventional sand pretreatment utilized at...

Many studies evaluating model boundary‐layer schemes focus on either near‐surface parameters or short‐term observational campaigns. This reflects the datasets that are widely available for use in evaluation. In this article, we show how surface and long‐term Doppler lidar observations, combined such a way as to match representation of boundary layer closely possible, can be used evaluate skill forecasts. We two‐year dataset from rural site UK climatology type forecast by Met Office Unified...

Abstract A series of high‐resolution three‐dimensional simulations the diurnal cycle deep convection over land are performed using new Met Office NERC cloud‐resolving model. This study features scattered convection. memory function is defined to identify effects previous in modifying current It based on probability finding rain at time t 0 and an earlier −Δ compared expected given no memory. The examined as a lag Δ . strongest gray‐zone scales 4–10 km, there change behavior for spatial...

Abstract Despite some recent improvements, major deficiencies remain in model simulations using parameterised convection capturing both the phase and amplitude of daily cycle precipitation tropical regions. The difficulties are particularly acute regions heterogeneous surface conditions, since need not only to respond appropriately local forcing from fluxes but also capture interactions with near‐surface mesoscale circulations. Here, we examine such a situation by means idealised...

Abstract. The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from transport and dispersion (VATD) models. In this paper an objective metric evaluate spatial accuracy VATD simulations relative satellite retrievals presented. fractions skill score (FSS). This measure provides more information than traditional point-by-point metrics, such as success index Pearson correlation coefficient, it takes into...

the safety requirements of liquid nitrogen, then going through some predictive calculations to estimate amount time inner component would be submerged in nitrogen reach desired size, parts were tested nitrogen.As seen image, part was cooled significantly during its and it determined that required 47 seconds fully cool an equilibrium temperature.This step implemented into a full assembly process which tooling cell designed.The autonomously assembles parts, after analysis, predicted output...