A5008061585- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Climate variability and models
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Agricultural risk and resilience
- Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Food Waste Reduction and Sustainability
- Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies
- Agricultural Economics and Policy
- Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Agricultural Innovations and Practices
- Water resources management and optimization
- Human Mobility and Location-Based Analysis
- Isotope Analysis in Ecology
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Rice Cultivation and Yield Improvement
- Organic Food and Agriculture
- Crop Yield and Soil Fertility
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
- Statistical and Computational Modeling
- Agriculture, Soil, Plant Science
- Energy and Environment Impacts
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Aalto University
2015-2025
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2024
University of Helsinki
2024
Stockholm Resilience Centre
2024
Stockholm University
2024
Tieto (Finland)
2015-2023
Food production on our planet is dominantly based agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing concept of safe space (SCS), which incorporates decisive factors production: precipitation, temperature, aridity. We show a rapid unhalted...
Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate combined hot and dry extremes as well cold wet maize, rice, soybean, wheat using gridded data reported yield at global scale for 1980-2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely have consistent negative effects all inspected types. Extremely conditions were observed to reduce too, although a lesser extent being more...
In spite of the high importance forests, global forest loss has remained alarmingly during last decades. Forest at a scale been unveiled with increasingly finer spatial resolution, but extent and in protected areas (PAs) large intact landscapes (IFLs) have not so far systematically assessed. Moreover, impact protection on preserving IFLs is well understood. this study we conducted consistent assessment PAs over period 2000–2012. We used recently published remote sensing based cover change...
Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015–2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) North Atlantic (NAO) are known impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for first time a unified framework relationships between IOD NAO simulated productivity at sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that 1961–2010, is significantly influenced by least one large-scale...
Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting spatial distribution and diversity global food crop production. Analyses future potential have been limited to a small number crops. Here we project geographical shifts in niches 30 major crops under 1.5-4 °C warming assess their impact on current production across croplands. We found that low-latitude regions, 10-31% would shift outside niche even 2 warming, increasing 20-48% 3 warming. Concurrently, decline 52%...
Abstract Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration its major drivers recent decades remained missing. We created global dataset annual net between 2000 2019 (~10 km grid, covering areas 216 countries or sovereign states), based reported downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) death (2,067 rates. show that, globally, around 50% world’s urban population lived where...
The industrialization of agriculture has led to an increasing dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Hence, shocks in the availability inputs can be devastating food crop production. There is also a pressure decrease use synthetic fertilizers and pesticides many areas. However, combined impact input yields not yet been systematically assessed globally. Here we modelled effects using random forest machine learning algorithm. We show that cause most drastic yield losses. Under...
Abstract. Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which related to variations in weather patterns crop yields worldwide. In terms of production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has found impact on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate – Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) North Atlantic (NAO) shown especially production Australia Europe, respectively. this study, we analyse ENSO,...
Abstract A considerable amount of food produced is lost globally. Food loss indicates not only the edible that humans do consume but also waste resources used in production and distribution, linked with multifold problems such as climate change, biodiversity loss, economic loss. While there has been a growing body literature about magnitudes technical solutions to reduce little known how different socioeconomic factors are potentially related losses. Here we assess relationships between...
Droughts are among the most devastating natural hazards, driving conflict, migration, and socioeconomic changes worldwide. Compound droughts – where meteorological, hydrological, soil moisture (agricultural) drought co-occur have greater ecological socio-economic impacts than individual types. However, existing knowledge about global-scale compound is limited, as research mostly focusing on smaller areas propagation of meteorological to other types, typically considering just two...
Abstract The importance of green water (moisture from rain stored in soils) for global food and security is widely recognized, with process-based simulation models field-level studies demonstrating its role supporting rainfed agriculture. Despite this evidence, the relationship between anomalies agriculture has not yet been investigated using statistical that identify a causal variables. Here, we address gap use disaggregated regression (panel data analysis) at 30 arc-min grid level to study...
Abstract Anthropogenic eutrophication is one of the most common threats to inland water quality, often causing toxic algal blooms and loss aquatic biodiversity. Mitigating harmful impacts requires managing nutrient inputs from catchment focusing on major local drivers eutrophication. These can be identified using models that predict lake trophic state based characteristics its catchment. In this study, we aimed extend spatial scope these by identifying in a large sample lakes (1547)...
<title>Abstract</title> Recommended solutions and innovations to shape sustainable food systems need be socioeconomically feasible implemented. The numerous publications the nuance of topic obfuscate comprehension most crucial socioeconomic measures required for successful implementation concrete policy formulation. Therefore, a clear comprehensive overview available evidence on is needed, especially focusing feasibility, which has not been done before. To address this research gap, we...
Abstract. Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which related to variations in weather patterns crop yields worldwide. In terms of production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has found impact all continents that produce crops, while two other climate – Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) North Atlantic (NAO) shown production especially Australia Europe, respectively. this study, we analyse ENSO, IOD...
High crop yield variation between years-caused by extreme shocks on the food production system such as weather-can have substantial effects production. This in turn introduces vulnerabilities into global system. To mitigate of these shocks, there is a clear need to understand how different adaptive capacity measures link variability. While existing literature provides many local-scale studies this linkage, no comprehensive assessment yet exists. We assessed reported for wheat, maize,...
Abstract Despite being a top concern on global agenda, global-scale, high resolution quantification of net-migration and its major drivers, is still missing for recent decades. We created dataset annual between 2000–2019 (~ 10km grid), based reported here-downscaled sub-national birth death ratios. show that globally, internal migration has increased rapidly, dominating over international migration. Around 50% world’s urban population lived in areas where accelerated growth, while third...
Abstract Climate change alters the climatic suitability of important food production areas, likely shifting spatial distribution and diversity future production. In existing research, there is limited knowledge on croplands for crop types beyond staple four: rice, maize, wheat, soybean. Further, focusing a number has hindered analysing how might in future. This study extends by projecting geographical shifts niches 27 major crops assessing these affect current potential global croplands. We...
Abstract Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate combined hot and dry extremes as well cold wet maize, rice, soybean, wheat using gridded data reported yield at global scale for 1980-2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely have consistent negative effects all inspected types. Extremely conditions were observed to reduce too, although a lesser extent...
&lt;p&gt;Droughts affect more people around the world than any other natural hazard and are projected to intensify due climate change. Droughts have traditionally been divided into four broad categories: socio-economic, meteorological, agricultural, hydrological. While common cause for drought is abnormally low precipitation, different types may be caused by factors, such as increased evaporation or anthropogenic influence.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The often studied...
Abstract Today’s food system is more global than ever. In addition to food, also the key inputs production such as fertilisers, machinery and pesticides are traded among countries. Shocks disturbances in trade flows of agricultural inputs, caused by e.g., conflict, can potentially be devastating yields even for otherwise self-sufficient However, impact these input shocks on crop has not yet been assessed globally. this study, we modelled effects using spatial data yields, a random forest...