The study of networks has recently exploded into a major research tool in many areas science. discovery “small world” and scale-free led to new insights about the collective behavior large number interacting agents complex systems. Here we introduce basic ideas behind networks, as well some initial applications climate system. Our results suggest that system exhibits aspects small-world with supernodes corresponding teleconnection patterns. This result suggests organization teleconnections...

We construct the networks of surface temperature field for El Niño and La Niña years investigate their structure. find that network possesses significantly fewer links lower clustering coefficient characteristic path length than network, which indicates former is less communicative stable latter. conjecture because this, predictability should decrease during years. Here we verify indeed compared to

We construct a network of observed climate indices in the period 1900–2000 and investigate their collective behavior. The results indicate that this synchronized several times period. find those cases where synchronous state was followed by steady increase coupling strength between indices, destroyed, after which new emerged. These shifts are associated with significant changes global temperature trend ENSO variability. latest such event is known as great shift 1970s. also evidence for type...

Many physical systems that have interacting structures span wide ranges in size involve substantial scale invariant (or scaling) subranges. In these regimes, the large and small scales are related by an operation involves only ratio. The system has no intrinsic characteristic size. atmosphere gravity causes differential stratification, so change new elliptical dimensions (d(el)). Fields extremely variable, such as rain, multiple scaling characterize increasingly intense regions. Elliptical...

This paper provides an update to earlier work that showed specific changes in the aggregate time evolution of major Northern Hemispheric atmospheric and oceanic modes variability serve as a harbinger climate shifts. Specifically, when Hemisphere are synchronized, or resonate, coupling between those simultaneously increases, system appears be thrown into new state, marked by break global mean temperature trend character El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability. Here, improved means quantify...

Significance Here we use newly available methods to examine the dynamical association between cosmic rays (CR) and global temperature (GT) in 20th-century observational record. We find no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR overall warming trend; however, on short interannual timescales, significant, although modest, short-term, year-to-year variability GT. Thus, clearly do not contribute measurably trend, they appear as nontraditional forcing climate system providing another...

We present a brief overview of some new methodologies for making predictions on time-series data. These ideas stem from two rapidly growing fields: nonlinear dynamics (chaos) theory and parallel distributed processing. Examples are presented that show the usefulness such methods in short-term predictions. It is suggested capable distinguishing between chaos noise. Implications these study weather climate discussed.

Abstract In a recent application of networks to 500-hPa data, it was found that supernodes in the network correspond major teleconnection. More specifically, Northern Hemisphere set coincides with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and another is located area where Pacific–North American (PNA) tropical (TNH) patterns are found. It subsequently suggested presence atmospheric teleconnections make climate more stable efficient transferring information. Here this hypothesis tested by examining...

Global mean temperature at the Earth's surface responds both to externally imposed forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, well natural modes of variability internal climate system. Variability associated with these latter processes, generally referred long-term variability, arises primarily changes in oceanic circulation. Here we present a technique that objectively identifies component inter-decadal global attributable variability. Removal hidden actual...

Some of the basic principles theory dynamical systems are presented, introducing reader to concepts chaos and strange attractors their implications in meteorology. New numerical techniques analyze weather data according above also presented.

When the reconstruction of attractors from observables is sought, Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm for estimating correlation dimension often used. An overview recent developments concerning data requirements and performance presented within. In view these significance previously estimated dimensions weather climate discussed.

Abstract The bulk of our knowledge about causes twentieth century climate change comes from simulations using numerical models. In particular, these models seemingly reproduce the observed nonuniform global warming, with periods faster warming in 1910–1940 and 1970–2000, a pause between. However, closer inspection reveals some differences between observations model simulations. Here we show that multidecadal variations surface exhibited coherent global‐scale signal characterized by pair...

Abstract Air temperature variability on different time scales exhibits recurring patterns and quasi‐oscillatory phenomena. Climate oscillations with the period about 7–8 years have been observed in many instrumental records Europe. Although these are weak if considering their amplitude, they might nonnegligible influence shorter due to cross‐scale interactions recently by Paluš (2014). In order quantify influence, we propose a simple conditional mean approach which estimates effect of cycle...