A5001927169- Climate variability and models
- Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Climate change and permafrost
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Nonlinear Dynamics and Pattern Formation
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
- Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Flood Risk Assessment and Management
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics
- Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
- Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics
- Geological and Geophysical Studies
- Plant Ecology and Soil Science
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2016-2025
Delft University of Technology
2016-2018
Committee on Climate Change
2018
University of Groningen
2018
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering
2018
Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica
2016
University of Amsterdam
2016
Wageningen University & Research
2004
Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam
1991
Philips (Finland)
1988
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The NetherlandsMet Éireann, Dublin, IrelandEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United KingdomDanish Copenhagen, DenmarkSwedish and Hydrological Norrköping, SwedenLisbon University, Lisbon, PortugalBarcelona Supercomputing Centre, Barcelona, SpainMétéo-France, Toulouse, FranceUniversity College IrelandStockholm Stockholm, SwedenBarcelona Spain, University of Murcia, SpainUniversity Oxford, KingdomSpanish Agency...
Abstract. The main characteristics of the new version 1.2 three-dimensional Earth system model intermediate complexity LOVECLIM are briefly described. includes representations atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, land surface (including vegetation), ice sheets, icebergs carbon cycle. atmospheric component is ECBilt2, a T21, 3-level quasi-geostrophic model. CLIO3, which consists an general circulation coupled to comprehensive thermodynamic-dynamic sea-ice Its horizontal resolution 3° by 3°, there...
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important trends in the mean climate are changes interannual variability, but fluctuations highly uncertain and associated processes unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global model simulations show that variability of will likely increase markedly (up 40% over 21st century), especially summer. This can be attributed increased poleward atmospheric moisture...
As an alternative to the frequently used mixed boundary conditions in ocean GCM's, we present a dynamic atmospheric model (ECBILT) that is simple and yet describes relevant thermodynamic feedback processes ocean. This provides possibility of studying atmosphere/ocean dynamics on very long time-scales order thousand years. The two orders magnitude faster than AGCMs. We have been running ECBILT with prescribed SSTs for period 500 years seasonal cycle included both solar forcing climatological...
The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture influence variability on European sector. For each regime, associated changes to wintertime—mean and extreme—wind solar production, temperature-driven demand shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. 'Scandinavian Blocking' 'North Atlantic Oscillation negative' regimes, average have...
Abstract The assessment of return periods extreme hydrological events often relies on statistical analysis using generalized value (GEV) distributions. Here we compare the traditional GEV approach with a novel large ensemble to determine added direct, empirical distribution‐based estimate events. Using global climate and models EC‐Earth PCR‐GLOBWB, simulate 2,000 years hydrology for present‐day 2 °C warmer climate. We show that method has inherent limitations in estimating changes extremes,...
To mitigate climate change a renewable energy transition is needed. Existing power systems will need to be redesigned balance variable production with demand. We investigate the meteorological sensitivity of highly-renewable European system using large ensemble simulations from two global models. Based on 3×2000 years simulated weather conditions, daily wind and solar yields, demand are calculated. From this data, 1-, 7- 14-days events extreme low high shortfall selected. Energy defined as...
Abstract. The low-lying Netherlands is at risk from multiple threats of sea level rise, storm surges and extreme river discharges. Should these occur simultaneously, a catastrophe will be hand. Knowledge about the likelihood simultaneous occurrence or so-called "compound effect" such essential to provide guidance on legislation for dike heights, flood barrier design water management in general. In this study, we explore North Sea Rhine discharge current future climate large 17-member global...
Abstract The investigation of risk due to weather and climate events is an example policy relevant science. Risk the result complex interactions between physical environment (geophysical or conditions, including but not limited events) societal factors (vulnerability exposure). impact two similar meteorological at different times locations may therefore vary widely. Despite relation conditions impacts, most research focused on occurrence severity extreme events, often undersamples...
Abstract This paper presents the methodology for construction of KNMI'23 national climate scenarios Netherlands. We have developed six scenarios, that cover a substantial part uncertainty in CMIP6 projections future change region. Different sources are disentangled as much possible, partly by means storyline approach. Uncertainty emissions is covered making conditional on different SSP (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). For each scenario time horizon (2050, 2100, 2150), we determine global...
The NCEP/NCAR re‐analyses as well ensemble integrations with an atmospheric GCM indicate that interannual variations in Sahel rainfall are related to the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Sahara. In turn MSLP global distribution of surface air temperature (SAT). An increase SAT Sahara, relative surrounding oceans, decreases thereby increasing rainfall. We hypothesize through this mechanism greenhouse warming will cause rainfall, because is expected be more prominent summer continents than...
Western European summers become more continental in simulations for the 21st century. Anomalously large summer warming over Mediterranean area concert with drier soils and a reduced surface pressure can explain this change. The is enhanced due to soil moisture depletion which limits cooling of land by evaporation. A large‐scale heat low develops, bringing easterly winds Central Europe. Statistical analysis present‐day conditions indicates that same mechanism operates on intra‐seasonal...
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over British Isles due warming are part of an atmospheric response decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in associated northward heat transport, keeping North relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences weakening AMOC lead large spread wind changes. Hence, uncertainty oceanic transport is main source projections Western...
<section class="abstract"><h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d497419e167">Abstract</h2> Changes in atmospheric circulation under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are important because of their implications for weather extremes and associated societal risks. However, uncertainties models future projections still large drivers behind changes not well understood. Particularly Europe, a potential weakening the Atlantic meridional overturning (AMOC) is considered as it affects...
Results from a large ensemble of climate model simulations over the period 1940–2080 suggest that observed strengthening westerly winds North Atlantic during past decades is not due to enhanced greenhouse effect but largely an expression random, internal variation driven by increased precipitation tropical Indian Ocean. Instead, drives change in extra‐tropical winter circulation through intensified West Pacific. This characterized wave train encompassing whole Northern hemisphere, pattern...
Abstract A 62-member ensemble of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations the years 1940–2080, including effects projected greenhouse gas increases, is examined. The focus on interplay between trend in Northern Hemisphere December–February (DJF) mean state and intrinsic modes variability atmosphere as given by upper-tropospheric meridional wind. structure leading are similar. Two commonly proposed explanations for this similarity considered. Several results suggest that most...
Abstract Signals of anthropogenic warming over Europe are searched for in the spatial trend patterns variance and skewness (expressed by 10th 90th percentiles) distribution daily mean temperature. Comparisons made between these station records European Climate Assessment dataset 1976–99 period, associated with natural variability observations (which were empirically derived from 1946–75 period), future as simulated National Center Atmospheric Research Community System Model Challenge...
It is known that strong zonal jets can act as waveguides for Rossby waves. In this study we use the European Center Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data to analyze connection between and waves at timescales beyond 10 days. Moreover, a barotropic model used systematically ability of idealized trap wave energy (“waveguidability”) function jet strength, width, location. general, strongest waveguidability found narrow, fast jets. addition, when stationary number integer,...
Abstract Present-day land temperatures simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models exhibit considerable uncertainty. Generally it is assumed that these temperature biases do not affect the projected warming in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations (i.e. drop out subtracting and present-day temperatures), but for specific regions seasons this assumption invalid. Here we show that, on contrary, large continental regions, such as Europe, state-of-the art with a warm summer...
In this study, empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) are used as basis in a spectral model of the atmospheric circulation. Two hypotheses tested. The first hypothesis is that EOFs more efficient describing large-scale dynamics compared to spherical harmonics. second that, by using functions, forecast skill and climatology can be improved. experiments performed with three-level, quasigeostrophic, hemispheric T21 model. experiment, perfect approach taken. second, produce forecasts for Northern...
Abstract. In the current multi-model ensemble approach climate model simulations are combined a posteriori. method of this study models in exchange information during and learn from historical observations to combine their strengths into best representation observed climate. The is developed tested context small chaotic dynamical systems, like Lorenz 63 system. Imperfect created by perturbing standard parameter values. Three imperfect one super-model, through introduction connections between...