Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada

• DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.3793
• Publication Date: 2021-03-31T15:31:59Z
• Authors: David Naimark; Sharmistha Mishra; Kali Barrett; Yasin A. Khan; Stephen Mac; Raphael Ximenes; Beate Sander
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

Resurgent COVID-19 cases have resulted in the reinstitution of nonpharmaceutical interventions, including school closures, which can adverse effects on families. Understanding associations closures with number incident and cumulative is critical for decision-making.To estimate association schools being open or closed compared community-based interventions.This decision analytical modelling study developed an agent-based transmission model using a synthetic population 1 000 individuals based characteristics Ontario, Canada. Members were clustered into households, neighborhoods, rural districts, cities regions, day care facilities, classrooms (ie, primary, elementary, high school), colleges universities, workplaces. Data analyzed between May 5, 2020, October 20, 2020.School reopening September 15, vs remaining under different scenarios interventions.Incident 1, 31, 2020.Among simulated individuals, percentage infections among students teachers acquired within was less than 5% across modeled scenarios. Incident case numbers 4414 (95% credible interval [CrI], 3491-5382) scenario 4740 CrI, 3863-5691) reopening, no other intervention. In interventions implemented, 31 714 568-908) 780 580-993) reopening. When applied observed early 777 621-993) 803 617-990) implementation there mean difference 39 355 by while keeping them yielded 2040 cases.This modeling Canada, found that most due to acquisition community rather changes associated reopenings relatively small interventions.